US poll trends/ updated 25/6/08

Yes, it’s too early to start watching polls closely in the USA, but here’s the summary by Rasmussen of its polling last week:

“For Republicans nationwide, the polls weren’t too good. Incumbent GOP senators in Alaska, Maine, New Hampshire and Kansas experienced falling numbers. Democratic senatorial candidates for open seats in Virginia and Colorado lengthened their leads. Similarly Obama fared well in all these states against McCain, except Kansas which is still firmly in the Republican’s corner. The two contenders are neck-in-neck in Ohio.”

This week’s news continues the trend. Here’s today’s Rasmussen headlines:

  • Pennsylvania: Obama Widens Lead on McCain: 46% to 42%.
  • New Mexico Senate: Democrat Udall’s Lead Jumps After GOP Primary, 58% to 30%.
  • Utah: McCain Has Solid Lead in Historically Red State.
  • New Mexico: Obama Holds onto Lead in Land of Enchantment, 47% to 39%.

Note that the Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico contests are all open races to replace Republicans. Republican Senate seats in play include Oregon, Alaska, New Hampshire, Mississippi and Kentucky.

I saw that Gordon Campbell commented last week on the polls that showed Obama ahead in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. I was going to blog about that, but checked and saw that the polls were all conducted by the same organisation (Quinnipiac University), and were not borne out by Rasmussen’s polling in Florida.

UPDATE: The news keeps getting better. While most polls continue to have Obama ahead by a modest amount, two recent polls show him pulling well ahead. A Bloomberg/LA Times poll has Obama opening a 15-point, 48%–33% lead in a four-way race, the same margin found by a Newsweek poll a few days ago. Has Obama finally got his bounce? A “June shift”?


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2 Responses to “US poll trends/ updated 25/6/08”

  1. truthseekernz Says:

    I’m waiting to see if there is an “October Surprise” instigated by the White House to distract people from the election and blunt Obama’s momentum.

    If the Republicans are about to go down in flames, they will have little to lose by trying to cheat. They’ve done it before readily enough.

  2. jafapete Says:

    Yep Steve, my very second post on this blog was about how and why the conservatives will always fight dirtier.

    I expect that they’re busy programing the voting machines right now. Some have even argued that they’ve been doing this already to keep Hillary Clinton competitive in the primaries, on the basis that the vote tallies in key states differed vastly from the exit poll data, but I’m inclined to think that’s a stretch. Still…

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