The One News Colmar Brunton poll just out confirms my reading of the two other polls released late last week.
Taken more recently (Saturday week ago to last Thursday), the Colmar Brunton poll confirms a slight bounce for Labour, up 2 points to 37%. This appears to be at the expense of the minor parties, however –with none of the smaller parties polling above the 5% threshold in this poll.
Further, National’s support has not been affected by the secret tapes and loose lips affair. At 51% National is still polling well enough to govern alone.
I don’t expect either situation come election time. NZers have proven themselves extremely adept at fine-tuning the final result, and we can confidently expect sufficient green-leaning Labour voters to peel off to save the Greens, if this looks necessary on the day.
Likewise, I’d be surprised if the voters give National a total mandate to govern alone. Why would they? They are still too much of an unknown quantity to be allowed to govern without check (and ACT doesn’t qualify as a check for more than 90% of the electorate, probably).
[Update: Pierson at The Standard posts on the polls.]
Tags: Labour Party, polls
Jafapete's Weblog 
August 18, 2008 at 10:48 am |
Why would they? They are still too much of an unknown quantity to be allowed to govern withour check.
You are assuming perfect knowledge. Most of us want Labour out so we’ll be voting National. I don’t care if they have a total mandate or not as long as Labour is out. If National goes wrong then we can vote them out within 3 years so it’s not too bad.
August 24, 2008 at 8:42 pm |
[…] poll confirms the trend revealed by other recent poll results. A slight bounce for Labour, National maintains a decisive advantage, with the loose lips debacle […]