6.5% and closing

Another poll shows the gap between National and Labour closing, to 6.5%. It confirms the trend revealed by other recent poll results.

The latest Roy Morgan poll — of 841 electors over 18–31 August — shows National at 44.5% (down 3.5%) and Labour at 38% (up 4%). Bad news for NZ First, down 4% to 2.5%, with the others largely unchanged: Greens at 8% (up 0.5%), Maori Party at 3.5% (up 1.5%), ACT at 1.5% (no change) and United Future at 1% (up 1%).

The previous Morgan poll was conducted between 28 July and 10 August, so would not have included much of the impact of the loose lips debacle. The current one does, along with much of the Peters saga.

Another factor may be increasing confidence in the Government:

“The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen strongly for the third New Zealand Morgan Poll in a row, rising 11.5pts to 115. It is now at its highest level since being at 118.5 in late February. For the first time since February, a majority of New Zealanders 50.5% (up 6%) say the country is “heading in the right direction” compared to 35.5% (down 5.5%) that say the country is “heading in the wrong direction.””

The interest rate cuts may have helped, and there are more of those on the way.

It is only one poll, but should it prove accurate then the Peters saga has affected NZ First but not Labour or ACT. This would not be a surprise, as most NZers probably understand only too well that had Labour done as National suggests, and shut out Peters, then we would simply have had an early election. This doesn’t seem to be wished for outside the right-wing blogs and John Key.

According to Tane’s calculations the latest result puts a Labour-led coalition in by a nose. Morgan on the other hand say that, “If an election were held now New Zealand would have a Coalition Government likely to be led by the National Party.” Even though Tane doesn’t factor in the overhang from the Maori Party seats, it looks as though the Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

But this is really beside the point. Political events in NZ are moving at a breathtaking pace, and anything could happen between now and the election, whenever that is.


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5 Responses to “6.5% and closing”

  1. Julie Says:

    I have a funny feeling election night is going to be another knuckle nibbler like last time… I’m not sure I can handle the tension!

  2. macdoctor01 Says:

    Strange how this poll was a rogue poll when it put National at 52% and Labour at 31% in June. Today it is part of a “trend”. I await further polls with interest.

    MacDoc, except I never called any poll a rogue poll as far as I can remember.

  3. toad Says:

    If it does become close, as is looking increasingly likely, the important thing for people who support Green policy is to actually VOTE Green.

    Last time heaps of Green supporters, many possibly not understanding how MMP works and fearful of a National-led government, moved to Labour in the last 2 or 3 weeks. So we got Winston First in government instead.

  4. stephen23 Says:

    yeah you sorta need that to negate the Dunne factor this time round eh

  5. Inventory2 Says:

    JP – you mentioned the Peters saga falling in this polling period (18 to 31 August).

    Parliament was in recess until Tues 26th – normally a time when the incumbents are under less scrutiny. There was the Williamson agenda interview on the 24th which Labour seized on that week. On Tues 26th Rodney Hide attacked Peters in the House. On weds 27th, the Owen Glenn letter to the PC was published. On Thurs 28th Clark admitted she’d known about the Glenn donation for six months, and on Fri 29th Peters stood aside.

    Those last two things, both of which SHOULD harm both Labour and Peters First, were right at the end of the polling period, and their full effect would not have been felt. The RM poll in two weeks time will show whether it is REALLY a bounce-back for Labour.

    The best news of all though was the 60% dropi in support for NZ First 🙂

    I2, We’re agreed on the last point. It’s even better that those deserting NZF didn’t go right. 😉

    Other factors may be, as Gary Morgan suggests, the interest rate cuts and the tragedy on the mountain that gave NZers, “a renewed perspective and respect for the tough Prime Minister they’ve known for nearly a decade.”

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