The day after (the election)

John Armstrong writes in today’s Herald:

“The ramifications of Key’s decision [ruling out a post-election deal with NZ First] are vast, not least in putting the Maori Party in the box seat after the election.”

Well, yes, some of us have been saying this for some time. Armstrong goes on to speculate, “… the way the numbers fall in Parliament may well force the Maori Party into a formal confidence-and-supply arrangement of the kind NZ First has with Labour.” As opposed to just abstaining.

Armstrong’s mostly right. What I think he understates is the urge to deliver.  Pita Sharples and Hone Harawira and others in the Maori Party are activists. It’s not in their natures to spend time on the sidelines and watch while others get to make the decisions. They’ve now had three years sitting impotently on the cross-benches, and they’re not interested in repeating the experience.

Also, I think people need to look at the obvious points that the Greens and Maori Party have in common. Environmental and social justice issues are core concerns for both, and the Green Party’s Tiriti o Waitangi policy is much closer to the Maori Party’s than anyone else’s.

They look like natural partners. Soul mates even. And if they were to hold the balance of power after the election and get together to negotiate a common platform with the two main parties… That would amount to a seismic shift in the political landscape.


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8 Responses to “The day after (the election)”

  1. Truthseekernz Says:

    Last election(?), I think I recall Jeanette Fitzsimons saing out loud that a local vote for the Maori Party and a party vote for the Greens would give Maori Party voters a chance to amplify their representation on Treaty issues. The Maori Party was quick to say there wa no arrangement and they wanted the party votes.

    I don’t like the idea of rorting MMP this way. If a big party did it and their voters followed through, it could be a disaster. I’m more interested in sincere votes for the party of choice and a sincere vote for the best local candidate (who has a chance of winning – it’s still FPP, after all).

    If that shakes out a local vote for the Maori Party and party vote for the Greens – fine. The difference may seem subtle, but it is important.

    Steve, Agreed. But after the election, I have no problem with two minor parties with a greatd eal in common putting up joint proposals to the so-called major parties. They’d both achieve a great deal more that way

  2. outofbed Says:

    The only problem with that is. the Greens will decide prior to the election the Maori Party after

  3. dave Says:

    Well, yes, some of us have been saying this for some time.
    And others of us have been saying it for even longer.

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  5. Sinner Says:

    The Greens have already decided: Labour all the way to Hell!

    But the Maori Party, yeah that’s looking great. They are actually campaigning out hard for the Party Vote in the Maori electorates – but frankly I think they’ll be fucked by Christmas. Here’s why:

    Most of the Party Vote in the Maori electorates will go to Labour.

    So the Maori Party can either support the party with the largest number of seats: that’s National. The government lasts for three years, then the Maori party is wiped out just like NZF was when it went with National from the Maori seats. Note that it won’t matter if they are in govt or just sitting on the slidelines – the political realities of Maoridom are that if they allow a National (especially National/ACT) government to be formed, they’ll be wiped out.

    But the alternative is worse. If the Maori Party sits on the sidelines, or actively supports a Labour government – when the National party is the largest party in parliament: that’s not a recipe for civil disobedience: but a recipe for civil war.
    The Maori electorates and the Maori party will be dissolved by force.

    The only way I can see to avoid this is to vote National in the electorate, ACT for the Party vote, ensuring ACT can be a strong partner for National — and that they can wipe out the Maori seats before the next election.

    but on current polling NZ is in for civil strife the kind that would make Tame Iti look like a kids TV presenter.

  6. georgedarroch Says:

    From my experience, the Green and Maori MPs have a lot of respect, and a lot of time for each other. That’s going to make a lot of difference.

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  8. Julie Says:

    Laila Harre suggested they do some of the post-election negotiating together on Nine to Noon this morning too. I think one of the key troubles, if the Maori Party are in the box seat, is that they have committed to a hui process before entering formal coalition. I guess this would make it more likely that they would sit outside a formal arrangement, but that’s still do-able. They’d have to if they wanted to go with National, I can’t see their hui coming out with a resounding result for National.

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