Well that didn’t take long. Hot on the heels of the Morgan poll comes the TV3 poll (a.k.a. the accurate one) showing the gap between Labour and National halving, to six per cent (45% to 39%, with the Greens on 6.8%).
The key may be in the responses to the question, “who do you trust to best manage New Zealand for the next three years?”
“Labour and Michael Cullen just won that battle with 42.7 percent. National and Bill English were a close second, with 41.2 percent.”
When we last had an economic “meltdown” of this magnitude, the voters went initially with the conservatives, a cautious response to the economic turmoil. As in the US, the election looks to be turning on the question of who it is that voters feel safest with.
If so, after the bungled tax package, expect the next poll (done after today) to be worse for National, not better.
[Hat-tip to ak for “loveable rogues.]
Tags: 2008 NZ election, polls
Jafapete's Weblog 
October 10, 2008 at 9:38 pm |
JP
It is only your opinion that the tax package was bungled. In my view, it was about right. Those who got nothing do not pay tax anyway due to working for welfare.
As for safety, no-one on the 33% tax rate ought to feel safe with Michael Cullen after the election.
I cannot believe anyone can take glee out of the prospect of Labour getting a fourth term. Bloody sadists.
If Labour get a fourth term, those who can will leave and it will be doom and gloom for those who have to stay.
I predict a most unhappy term of government under Labour. But it will not hurt me so they are welcome to it.
October 11, 2008 at 12:59 pm |
Oddly, the TV3 one has National falling since June-July?!
October 11, 2008 at 2:50 pm |
The TV1 poll just about to come out is pretty much n line with the last TV1 poll and shows little drop for National.
I think that there is much discussion going on at TV1 as to what’s happening with their polling being so out of step.
Aw, outofstep, let us revel in these polls for just a couple of days.
October 11, 2008 at 10:13 pm |
I have already predicted in an older post here that, if Labour squeak in with a 4th term, it will be the end of them. They have a good chance of a quick return if they are in opposition during the current crisis. Another three years in power, with deficits far larger than the ones predicted and unemployment through the roof, they will be total toast. It will take the left a couple of decades to recover.
It is the strength of the left that is minimising National’s tendency to run ACT-like policy. A weak left-wing opposition will have ACT exerting as much influence in National as the greens do in Labour.
You better pray they lose this one, mate!
Hell, MacDoc, all I said is “Game on”. Haven’t predicted a left victory.
October 12, 2008 at 1:37 pm |
macdoc – I agree with some of what you say, but there’s 2 sides to a Labour 4th term. How would National cope with a 4th term in opposition? A split between the centre and the right (with the right going of to join ACT)?
Another leader? Purging of the likes of Williamson, Ryall, Smith L, Smith N, English…
October 12, 2008 at 7:36 pm |
A split in National wouldn’t be so bad under MMP – remember, the party was formed by a merger between two parties for FPP conditions. Maybe a socially conservative, small “t” tory “National Country Party” under Bill English could even complement a private enterprise urban liberal party that might re-embrace the likes of Katherine Rich?
October 13, 2008 at 4:32 pm |
I think that 08wire wrote the almost definitive description of the Colmar-Brunton poll
http://08wire.org/2008/10/08/colmar-brunton-poll-better-but-still-biased/
Personally I’ve ignored it for decades as it is always wacky. There is still something seriously wrong with their polling techniques.
October 13, 2008 at 4:34 pm |
I think that 08wire wrote the almost definitive description of the Colmar-Brunton poll
http://08wire.org/2008/10/08/colmar-brunton-poll-better-but-still-biased/
Personally I’ve ignored it for decades as it is always wacky. There is still something seriously wrong with their polling techniques.