Comeback Kid M.I.A.

Watching Faux News yesterday you would have been amazed to hear that the US presidential election race is getting tighter. “Neck and neck” the caption read. Faux News was highlighting a poll that showed Obama only one point ahead of McCain. Their own poll showed Obama ahead by 9 points, but never mind that old thing. Couldn’t get much more “fair and balanced” than that, could you?

Here’s the spread of national polls and tracking polls, and movements since the previous poll:

There’s a spread from 1% (the AP poll that Faux News chose to report) to 11%. More importantly, these polls ticked Obama’s lead up for the fourth day in a row. So, yes, McCain gained a very small amount of ground around the weekend, but then… lost it again. The swiftboats never docked.

Obama’s now back where he was last week (at around 7.5%). But now there’s less than two weeks to go. And this picture is backed up by the state polls, which is, after all, where the electoral votes are:

That’s 354 Evs to 184. I’m inclined to think that, as James Carville puts it, “You can call the dogs in, wet the fire, and leave the house. The hunt is over.” Whatever Faux News says.

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4 Responses to “Comeback Kid M.I.A.”

  1. Watcher Says:

    Too early to make that call, mate.
    You might be right, but there are interesting trends going on under the broad polls. Maybe Fox have seen them too.
    I don’t think the Republicans have tossed in the towel yet.

    Watcher, maybe not all the Republicans, but David Frum has just published a piece that begins, “There are many ways to lose a presidential election. John McCain is losing in a way that threatens to take the entire Republican Party down with him.” http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/23/AR2008102302081.html

  2. Steve Withers Says:

    It’s looking good for Obama….but the votes haven’t been cast (never mind counted)….and we can’t certain it will go the way it appears. Especially with some of the stuff Greg Palast and Robert Kennedy Jr have been reporting about vote suppression.

    Thanks Steve, Actually, early votes are being cast in record numbers in a number of states, including Colorado and Florida, where the early voting is expected to account for up to 60% and 50% respectively. It seems that disproportionate numbers of those fronting up to the long queues are registered Democrats (absentee votes are another matter). See:
    http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14873.html

  3. Steve Withers Says:

    “goof”? Need a new laptop.

    Fixed.

  4. toms Says:

    New laptop? After just getting a new freeview HD decoder? Verily, you are the manifestation of the well-heeled urban liberal lefty that Sarah Palin warns us against.

    Yeah, toms, and I’d be an old-fashioned big spending liberal if I just had the money…

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