Archive for November 22nd, 2008

Final election results: How did the prediction go?

November 22, 2008

The unofficial official results are out. (Hat-tip kiwiblog.) Votes, % of total votes and number of seats for the main parties are:

National Party 1,053,398 44.93 58
Labour Party 796,880 33.99 43
Green Party 157,613 6.72 9
ACT New Zealand 85,496 3.65 5
Mäori Party 55,980 2.39 5
Jim Anderton’s Progressive 21,241 0.91 1
United Future 20,497 0.87 1
New Zealand First Party 95,356 4.07 0

My 6 November prediction was:

“National 45%, Labour 36%, Greens 10%, ACT 2.5% (with Epsom), NZ First 2.5% (without Tauranga), Maori (3% with 7 seats), others 1% (with Ohariu and Wigram).”

So, I was 0.07% out for National, 2.01% out for Labour; a whopping 3.28% out for Greens; 1.15% out for ACT; 1.57% out for NZ First; and 0.61% but 2 seats out for the Maori Party. Also, picked Ohariu, Wigram and Tauranga correctly.

Not too bad, but not one of my best efforts. Should have picked that more Labour voters would stay home. But what went wrong with the Green vote?

Did more Labour voters stay home? We’ll see when the NZES analysis comes out. We know that 78.8% of registered voters went to the polls, a couple of per cent less than 2005. This sounds good but is not great for NZ. There has been declining participation for some time.