NZ election prediction

Back to our own little election, which looks a whole lot less dramatic and low stakes than yesterday’s. Monday’s debate summed it up. Scrappy, but with few real sparks. Both determined to get their key talking points across above all else. No clear winner, unless you count John Campbell.

I’m picking National 45%, Labour 36%, Greens 10%, ACT 2.5% (with Epsom), NZ First 2.5% (without Tauranga), Maori (3% with 7 seats), others 1% (with Ohariu and Wigram). In other words, the Maori Party gets to decide.

I’ve become a little more gung-ho about the Greens chances since they made their preparedness to work with Labour in some sort of arrangement clear. Talking to people I know I get the feeling there’s even more of a swell in Green’s support now that it’s clear that Labour can’t govern without them and that the Greens are willing. But this is at the expense of Labour’s vote, which otherwise would be close to where it was in 2005.

These predicted results look not dissimilar to the latest One News/Colmar Brunton poll, but are much what I’ve been predicting for weeks. It’s interesting that the most consistently National-leaning poll is coming into line.

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9 Responses to “NZ election prediction”

  1. AndrewE Says:

    I’m picking the Nats to get close to 50% and the Greens to cannibalise even more Labour support.

  2. macdoctor01 Says:

    It is likely that Curiablog’s weighted poll will be very close to the final result. Most of our, Australia and the US elections have been predicted by averaged polls in the final six weeks. I think you once blogged on this very point, if I remember correctly, JP.

    Curiablog gives the three headed hydra (NAT/ACT/Dunne) a 2 seat majority. Small enough for John Key to look to making a deal with the Maori party but big enough so that they are not the “kingmakers” (producing a good deal for Maori but not radical enough to step on National’s right-wing toes).

  3. jafapete Says:

    MacDoc, the US polls have been stunningly accurate in predicting the national popular vote and state results (see http://www.pollster.com/blogs/actual_vs_predicted_electoral.php). As a result, my prediction of 364 EVs looks to be spot on, although NE-2 might yet go to Obama, making it 365. However, I confess that I predicted that Obama would just take Missouri and just miss Indiana, and it looks to be the reverse.

    But there were ten or so National polls and dozens of state-level polls being published daily there, whereas ours are very few and far between, making accurate prediction here that much harder. Which is why I wouldn’t put too much faith in the averaged poll numbers. Certainly not as much as you have here.

  4. toms Says:

    I guess you have to be honest. The polls are not that good for us (unfashionable as it may be amongst the chardonnay socialists of the leftish blogsphere, I am happily tribal Labour) on the centre left, although my “feel” is like yours – a lot of centre left undecideds moving towards the Greens.

    I have to admit, I find the idea of the Greens – the party that foisted the repeal of Section 59 on Labour – doing well from disaffected Labour voters a bitter pill. And am I the only person who cheered loudly when Jim Anderton called out the irritatingly self righteous and whining Russel Norman in the RNZ environment debate?

    The polls have genuinely got me confused. The spread is just to wide.

    Anyway, not long now. If it is a rout for the left, I’ll probably avoid the blogs for a few weeks – I suspect that the kiwiblog sewer will prove to be appalling winners. If Helen does manage to stitch togother a new centre left government, I think the sewer will implode with hate, and so I think avoiding will still be the best idea.

  5. Denis Says:

    The rise of the Greens probably means Labour is going into the toilet, also known as a wee/long spell in Opposition. This has much to do with the Greens being damn trendy, the darlings of those who have outside tables allocated at birth, and who actually understand the difference between the assorted coffee concoctions on the blackboards in inner city cafes.

    Their vote is coming off the Labour tally.

    Question.

    Is this the result of some brilliance in the National ranks, pumping up the Greens, to divide the centre/left vote, and guarantee the current occupant of the dark blue suit provided for whomever fronts the Nats, long enough in the Prime Ministerial limo for a certain amidships-spreading to become a worry.

    Of course, I could be wrong, and the lefties have managed this on their own. This is an even more worrying prospect. Still, we are likely to have a good long three years to give this matter thought.

  6. macdoctor01 Says:

    Looks like National/Act with a three seat majority. Suspect Key will still deal with Dunne and the Maori party anyway, at least on confidence and supply. At least it will be a rock-solid government, even if you don’t like the overall direction (not sure if that’s a consolation or not!)

    MacDoc, Who said anything about a change in “overall direction”? Correct me if I’m wrong, but National has going out of its way over the past couple of years to neutralise any thoughts of radical change in NZers’ minds. Remember, Roger will NOT be in cabinet. So, no cause for alarm, is there?

  7. showmethetaxcut Says:

    Are the people of Maungakiekie the smartest voters in New Zealand?

    The Maori Party will not get to decide. But National will show Labour what being inclusionary really means.

  8. Final election results: How did the prediction go? « Jafapete’s Weblog Says:

    […] 6 November prediction […]

  9. Felecia Cooke Says:

    for your information Last Thursday Dr Busuttil and Dr Farrugia had a 2 hour debate on RTK. Dr Busuttil did not turn up for 2 PBS programmes. It seems that he want the comfort of Peppi.

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